Beijing has withdrawn a massive oil rig earlier than scheduled from disputed waters off the Vietnamese coast, Chinese state media said, citing bad weather and completion of exploratory work.
But experts were not convinced, wondering whether Beijing’s move could have been due to the storm of protests from Vietnamese angered by the rig deployment in the South China Sea more than two months ago.
Bilateral relations had soured since a Chinese state-run oil company deployed the billion-dollar rig on May 2 close to the disputed Paracel Islands, leading ships from both nations to face off at sea and prompting rare protests against Chinese investments in Vietnam.
Vietnam’s official Tuoi Tre news agency on Wednesday quoted an official from the Vietnamese Fisheries Resources Surveillance Department as saying that Beijing had withdrawn the rig and that all Chinese vessels had left the area to escort it to China’s Hainan Island.
A report by China’s official Xinhua news agency confirmed the withdrawal, saying the rig had completed its oil and gas exploration after 73 days in the area, although China had previously said it was scheduled to operate in the area until mid-August.
The report quoted a petroleum geological expert as saying that the rig was also withdrawn out of concern for safety as the stormy season had begun in the area, adding that while a source of oil had been discovered, an assessment would need to be completed before proceeding with drilling.
Soon after the rig was towed out of contested waters, Vietnam’s state media quoted Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung as warning China “not to deploy any other oil rig to Vietnam’s waters” or “violate [its] territorial integrity, sovereign right and jurisdiction.”
The withdrawal is expected to calm tensions after several confrontations between ships from both nations that had led to collisions, including the ramming of a Vietnamese fishing boat in May by Chinese patrol vessels, which caused it to capsize.
The dispute has lowered relations between China and Vietnam to their worst level since the two communist nations fought a brief border war in 1979.
Violent anti-Chinese riots in Vietnam following the rig deployment had left at least four people dead and the destruction of factories believed to be operated by Chinese companies, though many were Taiwanese-owned.
Speaking with RFA’s Vietnamese Service about the withdrawal, South China Sea expert Vinh Truong said that the threat of storms was a convenient reason to avoid the larger issue of damage to bilateral relations.
“It’s lucky, because the typhoon is coming and they had to withdraw,” he said.
“However, this exposes a problem. The two sides can’t talk with one another, and we had to rely on the forces of nature to solve the dispute.”
‘Political intentions’
Hoang Viet, a Vietnamese legal expert on the territorial dispute, said that neither the explanation of the impending stormy season or the completion of oil discovery operations was likely to account for the pull out.
“Some said they removed the oil rig to avoid the typhoon, but this is not convincing because the design of this oil rig was done by [a U.S. company] and it can withstand the strongest storms,” he said.
Viet added that experts had estimated oil reserves in the area to be relatively low, which he said suggests the initial deployment of the rig was not for economic reasons.
“Therefore the removal of the oil rig only shows the political intentions of China … I think this is just a continuation of their tactics in the South China Sea.”
China claims almost the entire South China Sea—rejecting rival claims from Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Brunei—and the deployment was widely seen as part of a bid by Beijing to stake out its territory.
Nguyen Thanh Giang, a Vietnamese dissident who had taken part in anti-China demonstrations, noted that Beijing’s decision to withdraw the rig was not a result of political warnings or security threats and questioned whether Hanoi has the ability to protect what it considers its territorial waters.
“They removed the rig because they have completed their operations, not because of our vessel deployments,” he said, adding that he believes China will return to exploit other contested areas of the sea.
“So if we want to stop them, we need to fight more determinedly, not only with our internal forces but also external ones to stop their plan. More precisely, we need to establish a strategic partnership with the U.S. and Japan soon, which should include a military alliance. This will help to prevent them from coming back.”
International support
Carl Thayer, a professor at the University of New South Wales in Australia, agreed that Vietnam would have few options if China decided to use its vastly superior military to legitimize its claims in the sea.
“The withdrawal of this rig means a lowering of tensions and I presume at some point that Beijing and Hanoi will begin discussing how to repair their bilateral relations. And that will have some impact on what to do in the future,” he said.
“But quite frankly, there is very little Vietnam can do. If China wants to take 100 ships, including naval warships, and move them into an area, there are very few countries in the world that can stop that from happening.”
Instead, he said, Vietnam should use the opportunity of the withdrawal and lowering of tensions to study how China will act on the issue in the future and do what it can to enlist international support for its territorial claims.
But he added that it was unclear what Vietnam would gain from a greater alliance with Washington, which has sought to constrain Chinese influence in the region, but which also places more importance on its relationship with Beijing than it does with Hanoi.
“The more that the U.S. and China build up military cooperation, it might deflect the United States in cases like Vietnam, where it’s not an ally, from trying to uphold the international law,” he said.
On Tuesday, China had reiterated its stance that the U.S. should stay out of disputes in the South China Sea.
Reported by RFA’s Vietnamese Service. Written in English by Joshua Lipes.