TAIPEI, Taiwan – The size of Taiwan’s military has been at the center of a public debate in recent months, with reports emerging of plans to recruit women and foreigners while extending military training.
Meanwhile, politicians from the island’s two major parties and members of the public are debating the defense budget, as the U.S. is reportedly pressuring Taiwan to strengthen its military capabilities.
What is happening with Taiwan’s military?
Chieh Chung, a research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said the island is experiencing “a rapid decline” in the number of military personnel, which is affecting front-line combat units.
Taiwan’s armed forces saw a drop in the number of active-duty personnel to 152,885 in June 2024 from 164,884 in 2021, and Chieh believes the trend will continue mainly due to Taiwan’s low birth rate.
This is a problem for Taiwan, according to Michael Hunzeker, associate director of the Center for Security Policy Studies at George Mason University, as the island is facing mounting threats from one of the world’s largest militaries: China with more than 2 million active-duty military personnel.
China sees Taiwan as a breakaway province and has increased military pressure through drills and incursions. Taiwan, meanwhile, views itself as a sovereign state and strengthens its defenses. Beijing has increased military pressure on the island in recent years through air and naval incursions, military drills and diplomatic isolation efforts.
“Besides having more troops and weapons, China’s military leadership has also put more time, energy, and resources into modernizing its military,” said Hunzeker.
“None of these trends bodes well for Taiwan. There is no question that if we compare China and Taiwan in isolation, Beijing holds all of the cards militarily,” he added.
What is being done to address the shortage?
Taiwan has responded with plans to increase military salaries and benefits, but the proposal has been met with skepticism.
Arthur Kuo, a Taiwanese retired major general, is among those who believe that military recruitment is influenced by more than just wages.
“Societal values, the image of military personnel, working conditions, and career development opportunities,” he said as he listed factors that affect Taiwanese people’s willingness to join the military.
“One worthwhile lesson to keep in mind is that most Americans take a great deal of pride in their military,” Hunzeker said. “You don’t see the same thing in Taiwan.”
A 2024 survey found that more than 50% of respondents were not confident in the Taiwanese military’s self-defense capabilities.
“I would therefore imagine that if Taiwanese society held their servicemen and women in higher regard that it would probably do more for recruiting than any financial bonus ever could,” Kuo said.
Some defense officials and analysts have proposed recruiting foreign military personnel.
“The U.S. offers a fast-track naturalization process for green-card holders who join the military, which Taiwan could consider,” Kuo said.
However, some analysts believe that might be “counterproductive.”
Chieh from the Institute for National Defense and Security Research said Taiwan’s financial systems could collapse in a war, making salary payments for foreigners uncertain.
He warned that foreign troops, often motivated by pay, might lose commitment if payments stopped.
Managing and training mercenaries from diverse backgrounds would also require significant resources, potentially outweighing the benefits, he added.
Meanwhile, Taiwan’s defense ministry dismissed reports last week about a plan for the conscription of female troops.
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Does military modernization really require more troops?
Some commentators question whether increasing troop numbers is the right answer. They argue that the Russia-Ukraine war has shown the impact of military modernization, with drones, long-range artillery and missiles giving a force greater advantage than mere troop numbers.
But Kuo believes addressing the manpower shortage issue is still crucial for Taiwan.
“If Taiwan’s military capability declines, it will struggle to counter gray-zone threats from China, maintain strategic deterrence, uphold regional stability, and sustain foreign investment and economic growth – posing a serious national security risk,” he said.
Chieh shares similar views, saying that regardless of how advanced Taiwan’s weapons are, it must be prepared to defend the homeland with a sufficient number of ground forces, given China’s naval and air forces continue to grow.
“The key is that while we may maintain a smaller standing force in peacetime, we must be able to rapidly expand our troop numbers through mobilization when necessary,” he said.
China doesn’t just aim to defeat Taiwan’s military, according to Chieh. The authoritarian regime also assumes that U.S. intervention is inevitable.
Under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, the U.S. is committed to assisting Taiwan to defend itself, but it has long maintained a policy of “strategic ambiguity” on whether it would intervene militarily to protect Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack.
“So, its strategy revolves around establishing a dominant position around Taiwan before the U.S. can effectively intervene, and this is why Taiwan should maintain strong troops itself – to send signals to Washington that we’re a reliable ally and it is worthy for them to fight together with us,” Chieh said.
Edited by Taejun Kang.