TAIPEI, Taiwan – Taiwan’s annual military exercises have set 2027 as the potential year of a Chinese invasion – the first time it has specified a particular date for the imagined offensive – as the island’s leader promised to increase its defense spending amid U.S. pressure.
Taiwan holds the Han Kuang Exercise annually to test its military readiness against potential Chinese invasion. The exercise, planned for July 9-18, will involve joint operations among the Army, Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps, featuring live-fire drills, amphibious landings, and simulated missile strikes.
In this year’s drills, the island plans to focus on simulating the defense of the island with scenarios based on a potential offensive in 2027, according to Taiwan’s defense ministry.
“The Han Kuang exercise has always been designed to simulate scenarios that could occur within the next one to two years,” the island’s defense minister Wellington Koo said in a press conference on Wednesday.
“With the acquisition of new weapon systems, our training must continuously undergo validation to ensure combat effectiveness,” Koo said.
China considers Taiwan a breakaway province and has ramped up military pressure through drills and incursions. Taiwan, however, sees itself as a sovereign state and continues to bolster its defenses.
Taiwan’s announcement came after U.S. Strategic Command Commander Anthony J. Cotton warned at a defense conference on Tuesday that as China accelerates its military expansion, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, or PLA, could “seize Taiwan by 2027.”
In February, Taiwan’s defense ministry proposed to double the duration of the drillS to 10 from five days, while deploying more reserve brigades as part of the efforts to scale up its defensive strength.
Defense budget increase
Separately, Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te announced on Thursday that the island would increase its defense budget to more than 3% of gross domestic product, or GDP.
Its current defense budget is approximately 2.4%.
In a speech to the American Chamber of Commerce on Thursday, Lai emphasized his administration’s commitment to ensuring the defense budget surpasses 3% of GDP while “continuing national defense reforms.”
Lai’s remarks were the most recent attempt to reassure both U.S. and domestic critics who argue that Taiwan is not investing enough in its own defense.
U.S. President Donald Trump has called on Taiwan to raise defense spending to as much as 10% of GDP – significantly higher than what the U.S. or its key allies allocate – in an effort to deter China.
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Since Lai took office in May 2024, China has intensified pressure on Taiwan through heightened military activity, including large-scale joint air and sea exercises and frequent deployments of warplanes and naval vessels near the island.
It has also introduced new military equipment, such as landing barges designed for amphibious operations, and increased cyber and influence operations to sway public opinion in Taiwan.
Beijing announced in early March that it was increasing its 2025 defense budget by 7.2% to US$246 billion, marking the fourth consecutive year of more than 7% growth in defense spending.
“Taiwan plans to advance our cooperation with the U.S. and other democracies in upholding regional stability and prosperity,” Lai said.
Edited by Taejun Kang and Stephen Wright.