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An ethnic minority insurgent force in Myanmar has said it is ready to talk to the junta, while acknowledging China’s efforts to end hostilities, in what an analyst said was the latest sign that Chinese pressure on Myanmar’s rivals to end their war was paying off.
China has extensive economic interests in its southern neighbour including energy pipelines and mining projects and is keen to see an end to the violent turmoil that has engulfed Myanmar since the military overthrew an elected government in early 2021.
China backs the military but also maintains contacts with rebel forces, particularly those based on its border. It has been calling on all sides to talk while pressuring the insurgents by closing the border and cutting off essential supplies such as fuel.
The Ta’ang National Liberation Army, or TNLA, based in Shan state, announced in a statement on Monday that it was ready to engage in talks with the military.
The group was positive about China’s mediation and said it was committed to cooperate until favorable conditions were achieved. It highlighted its belief in a federal union that ensures the right to self-determination for all ethnic groups.
Radio Free Asia was awaiting further details from the TNLA’s spokesperson on the possibility of talks with the military.
One analyst said Chinese pressure was working.
“It appears that China is exerting pressure on both sides,” said Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-based analyst on Myanmar affairs.
“The TNLA is also taking into account the impact of the conflict on civilians in its region.”
The TNLA is a member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance of rebel groups who went on the offensive on Oct. 27 last year, and made stunning gains, putting the military under the most pressure it has faced since shortly after independence from Britain in 1948.
Offers of talks
The junta chief, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, has recently made several offers of talks to the insurgents, including once while in China this month, on his first visit there since the 2021 coup.
In his latest call for peace, in a message for National Day on Monday, Min Aung Hlaing said political issues had to be resolved through political means not through armed struggle, and if not, Myanmar risked disintegration and the loss of solidarity and sovereignty. The military has long seen itself as the only institution capable of holding the diverse country together.
While calling for talks, the junta has also been stepping up airstrikes on rebel zones, with a rising toll on civilians, U.N. rights officials say.
Insurgents groups, including the TNLA, have asked China not just to press them to make peace but to also tell the junta to stop its airstrikes on civilians. They say China has not responded.
The rebels dismissed Min Aung Hlaing’s first offer of talks as window-dressing for a foreign audience, made at China’s insistence.
Then in September, a Shan-state-based ally of the TNLA in the three-party alliance, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA, said it would stop attacking big towns and cities and would no longer cooperate with the National Unity Government, or NUG, which was set up by pro-democracy politicians after the 2021 coup.
The MNDAA announcement came days after it said China had warned it to stop fighting and had closed off the border. China gave the TNLA the same warning in late August.
Analysts say China regards the NUG as under the influence of Western governments and wants it isolated.
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‘Stop the money’
For its part, the NUG, which commands the loyalty of militia forces set up by pro-democracy activists, has been skeptical of the junta’s calls for talks.
It said in its National Day comments that the population was united in the effort to overthrow the military dictatorship and begin a new chapter.
The NUG stresses the need for concerted international pressure on the junta, including cutting off supplies of jet fuel for the air force.
“If regional countries stop the flow of money to the military regime, it will suffer,” said NUG spokesman Kyaw Zaw. “Sanctions should target companies that supply jet fuel and shipping lines which transport jet fuel for the junta.”
Political analyst Than Soe Naing was also not optimistic about the prospects for talks given the bad blood between the two sides.
“Only when the people have some weapons and power in their hands can they begin to talk about peace,” he told RFA. “As long as the people are oppressed and killed, peace talks will be impossible.”
Myanmar affairs analyst Sai Kyi Zin Soe said there was nothing any other powers could do about China’s intervention in Myanmar and its support for the junta: “Neither the U.N. nor the United States has the capacity to stop it. ASEAN has also failed to implement effective measures.”
China’s intervention on behalf of a deeply unpopular junta looks bound to inflame public anger. A small bomb recently went off outside the Chinese consulate in Mandalay city.
“China is actively interfering in Myanmar’s internal affairs,” said a Myanmar citizen in the South Korean capital, among a couple of hundred people protesting outside the Chinese embassy.
“We, as members of the diaspora, are opposing China for recognizing the military council.”
Edited by Taejun Kang and Mike Firn.
Translated by Aung Naing, Kalyar Lwin.