Over one-third of Myanmar’s population to need aid by 2025: UNOCHA

Nearly 2 million made vulnerable this year, driven largely by conflict and disaster displacement.

Read RFA coverage of this topic in Burmese.

More than one-third of Myanmar’s population will be in need of humanitarian assistance by 2025, driven largely by displacement from conflict and natural disasters this year, according to a United Nations report.

The assessment by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, or UNOCHA, came as another U.N. agency — the World Food Program — slammed the country’s junta over reports that its relief supplies were discovered in military border posts in Rakhine state.

UNOCHA warned on Dec. 13 that it anticipates the number of people in need in Myanmar to swell by more than 10% from 18 million people in February to 19.9 million by the new year, accounting for more than one-third of the country’s population of 55.8 million.



It’s a staggering increase from prior to the military’s Feb. 1, 2021, coup d’etat when, according to UNOCHA, just over 1 million people required aid in Myanmar.

The agency described the growth — driven in part by displacement this year — as an “unprecedented surge” in humanitarian need in Myanmar.

UNOCHA said the humanitarian crisis has worsened due to intensified fighting, natural disasters, and a steep economic downturn since the military coup.

Attacks, disasters and draft

Asked about the U.N.‘s prediction, Win Myat Aye, minister of humanitarian affairs and disaster management for Myanmar’s shadow National Unity Government, or NUG, told RFA Burmese the primary cause of the crisis is junta attacks on civilians as it battles rebel groups opposed to its rule.

“The second reason is the occurrence of natural disasters during the current period,” he said, including late September’s Typhoon Yagi — Southeast Asia’s worst storm of the year.


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Yagi triggered flooding and landslides that damaged schools and tens of thousands of homes in Kayah and Shan states and the Mandalay region. UNOCHA said last month that the flooding had affected more than 1 million people in 70 towns across Myanmar.

“Another crucial factor is the compulsory military service law,” Win Myat Aye said, referring to the draft enacted by the junta in April to shore up its dwindling military ranks amid mounting battlefield losses.

The law requires men aged 18-35 and women aged 18-27 to serve a minimum of two years, and young people have been fleeing the country ever since.

Economic mismanagement

Banyar, secretary of the Interim Executive Council of Kayah state, also blamed the junta’s “poor economic management” that has forced people to eat into their savings to make ends meet.

“What [the people] once saved, stored, and shared is now gone, and now they are facing an even greater crisis,” he said. “When all resources are depleted, even those who aren’t poor are left with no choice but to rely on international aid. This is why the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance is rising.”

UNOCHA’s assessment follows a Dec. 5 report by the United Nations Children’s Fund, or UNICEF, which found that children and families in Myanmar are in urgent need of life-saving assistance and emergency services.

Members of Bamar People's Liberation Army eat  dinner in territory belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army in Karen State, Myanmar, February 17, 2024.
myanmar-humanitarian-aid-food-supplies-02 Members of Bamar People's Liberation Army eat dinner in territory belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army in Karen State, Myanmar, February 17, 2024. (Reuters)

RFA reached out to junta spokesperson Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun for a response to the UNOCHA report, but received no response.

Aung Thu Nyein, a member of the Institute for Strategy and Policy – Myanmar, told RFA that the current situation in Myanmar requires consideration from all stakeholders, regardless of their political differences.

“If we estimate that around 20 million people currently need assistance, that amounts to nearly one-third of our population. Some reports also suggest that half of the country is living in poverty,” he said. “These are problems that decision-makers — both the junta and the opposition — must seriously consider.”

In June, the United Nations Development Program said that 42 million people, or 75% of Myanmar’s population, are facing poverty.

Military pilfering food aid?

UNOCHA’s findings came as the World Food Program, or WFP, expressed concern over allegations that food it handed over to the military regime for distribution to Myanmar’s needy had been discovered in a building previously occupied by pro-junta Border Guard Forces in northern Rakhine state.

In a statement issued on Wednesday, the WFP said that any misappropriation of humanitarian assistance intended for Myanmar’s most vulnerable communities, who are in need of lifesaving aid, is “unacceptable.”

A woman walks past a sign at the entrance of the United Nations World Food Program headquarters in Rome, Oct. 9, 2020
myanmar-humanitarian-aid-food-supplies-03 A woman walks past a sign at the entrance of the United Nations World Food Program headquarters in Rome, Oct. 9, 2020. (Gregorio Borgia/AP)

The agency acknowledged that it was made aware of the allegations through media reports and has been unable to verify the information, primarily due to lack of access to the region, where the junta is engaged in pitched battles with the rebel Arakan Army, or AA.

The AA, which largely draws its support from Rakhine’s Buddhist majority, has made steady advances over the past year, from the border with Bangladesh, through central areas to its far south, and now controls about 80% of the state.

The Rakhine-based new outlet Arakan Bay News-ABN reported on Dec. 13 that after the AA captured the station of No. 5 Border Guard Police Sub-unit in Maungdaw township on Dec. 8, “thousands of bags of WFP rice” were found inside the station.

The bags of rice were being used by junta forces as defense barriers for their foxholes, the report said.

Storage facility torched

A WFP food storage facility, located about 1.2 kilometers (.75 miles) east of the police station in Myo Thu Gyi neighborhood, was broken into and set on fire in June.

WFP had previously stated that the facility contained 1,175 tons of emergency food, which it said was enough to feed 64,000 people for one month.

The AA released an aerial video on June 25, showing that the warehouse was set on fire by junta troops, but the military regime denied involvement.

Attempts by RFA to contact junta spokesperson Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Htun for a response to the WFP statement went unanswered by the time of publishing.

The WFP has called on all parties to the conflict to uphold their obligations under international law to respect and protect humanitarian personnel and assets.

The WFP has also warned that the overall food security situation in Myanmar — already alarming — continues to deteriorate due to the ongoing conflict, recent climatic shocks and the country’s economic downturn.

Translated by Kalyar Lwin and Aung Naing. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Malcolm Foster.