South Korea's defense minister said this week that rival North Korea was likely to send troops to Ukraine to support Russia's army there. If that were to happen it would signal a major upgrade of cooperation between the allies and a rare foray by the long-isolated and nuclear-armed North into foreign conflict.
The United States has said North Korea has supplied Russia with large quantities of artillery rounds and ballistic missiles in exchange for Russian technological assistance for its space program. South Korea believes the North has sent more than a million artillery shells to Russia, as well as ballistic missiles.
Both Russia and North Korea have denied that the North has sent weapons to Russia and neither country, nor their state media, has mentioned the possibility of North Korean military personnel helping Russia in Ukraine.
What we know
Ukrainian media reported last week that six North Korean military officers were among about 20 military personnel killed in a Ukrainian missile strike on a training ground in Russian-occupied territory near the city of Donetsk on Oct. 3.
Citing sources in Ukraine's military intelligence, Interfax-Ukraine said three North Korean servicemen were also wounded. It cited Russian bloggers as saying that North Korean officers were visiting the front as part of an "exchange of experience" program in which they were being briefed by the Russian military.
Radio Free Asia could not independently verify the reports. Russian and North Korean state-media have not mentioned any such incident.
Ukrainian intelligence officials said last year that North Korean military personnel, including engineers, were operating in Russian-occupied territory. The Ukrainian government has said Russia was planning to mobilize North Korean laborers for various construction projects in occupied Ukrainian territory.
South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun told parliament on Tuesday it was "highly likely" that North Korea would send troops to Ukraine given that Russia and North Korea signed a mutual defense pact as part of a "comprehensive strategic partnership" in June, when Russian President Vladimir Putin was visiting Pyongyang.
Kim did not elaborate. In their pact, Russia and North Korea agreed to provide immediate military assistance if either faced armed aggression.
What would sending troops mean?
The dispatch of North Korean troops to Ukraine would signal a much more interventionist outlook by long-isolated North Korea under its young leader, Kim Jong Un, and a reiteration of his ambition for North Korea to be treated on the world stage as a significant military power.
After virtually sealing itself off from the world during the COVID-19 pandemic, North Korea has been rebuilding its foreign connections over the past year, amid suspension in South Korea that North Korea’s ties with old ally China are cooling.
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Over the decades, the North has cooperated on ballistic missile technology with countries such as Pakistan and Iran, but dispatching troops to a foreign conflict would be a major step that would likely be viewed with concern around the world.
Notable foreign interventions by North Korea
It has been very rare for North Korea, since its founding, to send troops abroad but U.S. researcher Merle Pribbenow said in 2011 that after years of rumors, both North Korea and Vietnam had admitted that North Korean pilots had flown in combat against U.S. aircraft over North Vietnam during the Vietnam War. The former CIA officer cited an official Vietnamese military history published in 2001 as saying: "On a number of flights Korean pilots scored victories by shooting down American aircraft."
Like other countries on the anti-colonial side of the Cold War, North Korea supported “liberation movements,” particularly in Africa, with arms, training and advisers.
Researcher Tycho van der Hoog of Netherlands' Leiden University said that between 1960 and 1980 North Korea helped such movements achieve power with weapons and training. From about 1980 to 2000, North Korea helped several newly independent African countries consolidate power through establishing presidential guards trained by North Korean advisers.
From 2000 onward, several African governments utilized North Korean repair services and updated military equipment to maintain power, van der Hoog said.
Despite that military support, North Korea's deployment of troops in Africa was more rare but an estimated 3,000 North Korean military personnel, along with 1,000 advisers, are known to have participated in the Angolan Civil War in the late 1970s and 1980s against South African forces.
During the 1973 Yom Kippur War in the Middle East, media reported both Israel and the U.S. as saying a small number of North Korean pilots flew Egyptian fighter aircraft in combat against Israeli forces.
In Asia, beginning in the 1990s, Cambodia’s then Prince Norodom Sihanouk – later re-crowned king – had North Korean bodyguards for years as a result of Sihanouk’s close relationship with the North’s founding leader, Kim Il Sung.
Edited by Taejun Kang and Mike Firn.