Senior North Korean diplomat Thae Yong Ho, a minister at the North Korean Embassy in London, defected to South Korea this week, becoming one of the highest-ranking government officials ever to defect from the country. Changsop Pyon of RFA's Korean Service asked North Korea experts Andrei Lankov of Kukmin University in Seoul about the impact of the rare defection.
RFA: What is the significance of Thae Yong Ho's defection to South Korea?
Lankov: I estimate there are about seven or eight cases of North Korean diplomats defecting to South Korea this year alone. Still, Minister Thae's defection is highly unusual. Why? Tae and his wife are from the families of the so-called "Paekdu bloodline," the anti-Japanese guerrilla group led by North Korean founder Kim Il Sung that resisted Tokyo's colonial rule over Korea. In other words, the Thae family is one of the most powerful 100-odd families of Paekdu bloodline in North Korea today. Of course, there were defections by some very high-profile North Korean figures in the past, but not many. Tae's defection really stands out for this reason.
RFA: What possible impact could Thae's defection have on other North Korean elites abroad?
Lankov: The recent trend of increasing defections by North Korean traders and diplomats shows clearly that they are in restless and agitated mood. The basic reason for their defection is the continuing executions since Kim Jong Un took office. During Kim Il Sung and Kim Jung Il days those from good families and privileged elites were not executed like today. Compared with Kim Il Sung and Kim Jung Il, Kim Jong Un ordered many more executions, and those subject to punishment are highly likely to be executed rather than sent to labor camps. Accordingly, those elites abroad who think they are in political trouble are likely to defect, knowing they can be executed when summoned back home.
RFA: Will North Korean elites continue defecting despite Kim Jong Un's rule of terror?
Lankov: I think they will. Kim Jong Un has no intent to stop his politics of terror targeted at the privileged elites. As Kim has been continuing to rule by execution, those privileged elites and diplomats who dread Kim's draconian rule will continue to defect, I think. The Kim regime can stop them from defecting to certain extent, but not completely.
RFA: What will the effect be of North Korea's reported order summoning families of diplomats back home?
Lankov: If it's true that Pyongyang issued such an order, it will have some effect on curbing defections. Their families are like hostages. Even though their families are not sent to labor camps, they will certainly go through many difficulties and discrimination in North Korean society. Despite that, the summons order won't completely stop them from defecting. Why? Basically the fate of a diplomat's family will be the same whether the diplomat is summoned and then executed as a political prisoner, or whether the diplomat defects, defying Pyongyang's summon order. Again, if Pyongyang really issued such a summon order, it will probably curb diplomats’ defections to some extent, but not completely.
Reported and translated by Changsop Pyon for RFA's Korean Service.