North Korea is expected to determine its major policy direction for 2024 this week – with analysts predicting an increased focus on further boosting its nuclear capabilities aimed at exerting more pressure on the United States.
Pyongyang stated in early December that it would convene the Central Committee Plenary Meeting of the Workers’ Party Korea later the month, without specifying exact dates.
Given North Korea’s tradition of convening year-end meetings and announcing results on New Year’s Day to set the next year’s policies, the meeting is likely to take place this week.
And analysts believe that Pyongyang is set to declare its continuation of the nuclear capability advancement plan, designed to justify its nuclear weapons acquisition.
Wang Son-taek, director of the Global Policy Center at the Han Pyeong Peace Institute, said that the meeting is expected to boast North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s strategy for what appears to be a new-Cold-War-diplomacy.
“Ultimately, Kim Jong Un’s approach, particularly his emphasis on nuclear capabilities, which has allegedly positioned North Korea as a formidable military power on par with the United States, will likely be affirmed,” said Wang. “This stance is anticipated to be further developed and showcased in the meeting.”
Last week, the International Atomic Energy Agency has found that a new nuclear reactor is apparently operational at North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear complex, suggesting the country's acquisition of additional means to obtain plutonium for nuclear weapons.
The nuclear watchdog's discovery came as the North's official state media reported Kim Jong Un emphasizing the country's implementation of its "assertive response strategy," which includes the potential for a nuclear attack in retaliation against the allies. Meanwhile, the leader's sister Kim Yo Jong issued a fresh warning that the allies should consider how Pyongyang might respond to what it perceives as their hostile actions.
“Furthermore, for 2024, it is anticipated that North Korea will maintain this approach while diplomatically working to build a tripartite alliance with China and Russia against the U.S., and also attempt to draw in more anti-U.S. nations into this coalition,” Wang said.
“Special efforts are expected to be made to involve China more actively in this anti-America coalition. Compared to Russia, China has been relatively passive, but the inclusion of China is crucial for elevating this alliance to a higher level. Continuous efforts to achieve this will likely be evident,” the analyst added..
Next year marks the 75th anniversary of North Korea’s normalization of relations with China. North Korea may use the occasion to further address North Korea-China relations extensively to maximize its strategic benefits.
Cheon Seong-whun, former security strategy secretary at South Korea’s presidential office, believes the message may primarily articulate North Korea’s stance to the U.S. Since its 2017 declaration of nuclear capability, North Korea has aimed to confront Washington, using its nuclear power to undermine American political resolve and compel engagement with a nuclear-armed regime.
“This has resulted in a policy standoff between U.S. sanctions and North Korea’s nuclear armament, with North Korea seemingly gaining the upper hand, partly due to China and Russia creating loopholes in the sanctions. North Korea likely believes it is winning in this battle,” he said.
“In its 2024 policy declaration, North Korea may proclaim the success of its nuclear strategy so far and announce plans to accelerate its nuclear capabilities,” Cheon noted, adding that this could include additional launching of reconnaissance satellites and ICBMs, while simultaneously pressuring for recognition of its status as a nuclear power.
This may also be accompanied by a nuanced suggestion that the door to dialogue could be open, the pundit added.
“Ultimately, North Korea aims to increase its bargaining strength ahead of the U.S. presidential election. Militarization is seen as a key strategy to draw the U.S. to the negotiating table,” Cheon said. “The approach will likely be full speed towards armament enhancement, preparing for disarmament negotiations.”
Last week, North Korea fired its latest solid-fueled ICBM, the Hwasong-18, with the launch reaching a maximum altitude of about 6,500 kilometers (4,040 miles) and flying a distance of around 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) before hitting its target off its eastern coast.
Although the test was conducted at a high angle, it still represented a potential threat to the U.S. If launched at a lower trajectory, this missile may be capable of reaching the U.S. mainland.
The Central Committee Plenary Meeting is likely to cover Pyongyang's ongoing efforts to finish its military reconnaissance satellite system. Following the satellite launch in November, leader Kim Jong Un outlined his intention to complete the reconnaissance satellite launch agenda for the upcoming year. This detailed strategy might also be a key topic of discussion at the meeting.
Edited by Elaine Chan and Taejun Kang.