When South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol suggested the potential of Seoul acquiring nuclear capabilities, the United States promptly set up the Nuclear Consultation Group, or NCG. This initiative is aimed at addressing Seoul’s security concerns, in the hopes of preventing them from developing into a significant security dilemma for Washington, namely a nuclear domino effect across Asia.
However, North Korea’s deployment of spy satellites and subsequent launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) has led to increasing skepticism in Seoul regarding the dependability of Washington’s deterrence strategy, fueling a louder call for South Korea to develop its own nuclear arsenal. Experts noted that this sentiment will likely intensify unless the U.S. sufficiently addresses South Korea’s security concerns.
Signs are already evident. A poll released by Gallup Korea earlier this year shows around 78% of South Koreans are in favor of the country developing its own nuclear weapons.
Prominent politicians, such as Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, who is considered a potential presidential candidate for the ruling party for 2027, have also been vocal about the issue.
Oh on Tuesday, for instance, stressed that South Korea would need its own nuclear arsenal, calling bolstering the cooperation with the U.S. under nuclear umbrella “only a temporary measure.”
Oh’s remarks are widely viewed as his attempt to align with the aspirations of South Korea’s conservative base, advocating for the nation to become a nuclear power.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol had previously brought up the idea of the country going nuclear if its security situation with North Korea deteriorates. While these remarks were not a policy announcement, they sparked an intense debate within the South’s domestic political circles. With the by-election in April next year and the presidential election for 2027, this high-stake nuclear debate is only likely to continue in the country.
Washington’s dilemma
The U.S.-South Korea bilateral announcement to establish the NCG, agreed in Washington in April, is a clear indicator that shows Washington’s strategic effort to mitigate South Korea’s inclination towards developing its own nuclear arsenal.
In the traditional sense, South Korea’s potential pursuit of nuclear weapons may destabilize the nuclear arms race in East Asia, which could become a security dilemma for Washington.
"The tense atmosphere concerning Taiwan would justify … Japan would also be willing to become part of the 'nuclear group' not to feel disadvantaged in case a war occurs," researchers of London-based King's Think Tank noted in April, adding that having a nuclear South Korea could lead to the nuclear "domino effect" in East Asia.
Cheon Seong-whun, a former security strategy secretary for South Korea's presidential office believes while the NCG reflects the U.S.’s understanding of the complex security environment in the region, it needs to bear real substance if it is to mitigate the growing voices in the South advocating for nuclearization.
“North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ICBM launches target the U.S., but the U.S.’s capability is reciprocated for retaliation, effectively neutralizing the Pyongyang threat,” said Cheon.
“But this leaves a critical question unanswered: Is there an adequate countermeasure for North Korea’s nuclear weapons and short-range missiles specifically aimed at ROK? Currently, no such equivalent countermeasure exists in ROK, highlighting a significant security gap here,” he added by referring to South Korea as its former name.
He stressed the importance of filling such a gap, adding that’s where the NCG must come into play.
“It’s not enough to simply just continue deploying strategic assets in the Korean peninsula, but a more nuanced approach is needed,” he noted.
“The NCG should focus on developing and discussing more effective strategies and collaborative measures to address the specific challenges posed by North Korea’s targeted missile threats, to fundamentally ease Seoul’s security concerns,” the pundit explained.
Edited by Taejun Kang and Mike Firn.