Public opposition to a pilot census program conducted by Myanmar’s junta this month has been so strong that the likelihood of a meaningful survey ahead of planned elections is extremely slim, according to experts.
The junta hopes to carry out a survey to get an accurate headcount in the lead up to polls it wants to legitimize its grip on power following the military’s Feb. 1, 2021, coup d’etat, but critics say any vote would be neither free nor fair.
Earlier this month, pro-junta media reported that a pilot census was being conducted from Oct. 1-15 in 20 townships in Naypitaw and 14 regions and states around the country.
But members of the public told RFA Burmese that they have other, more pressing concerns on their minds, while the anti-junta People’s Defense Force, or PDF, paramilitary group has vowed to do whatever it takes to stop it.
“People aren’t interested [in the census], because it is being done by the junta,” said Tun Myint who, like others interviewed for this report, used a pseudonym due to security concerns. “People are struggling to earn a living, so they are interested in neither elections nor a census.”
The resident of Yangon region’s Dagon Myohit township said junta authorities had been going door to door during the pilot program, taking the names of the heads of households and questioning occupants about whether or not they live there.
“Regardless, the people are not cooperating,” he said.
Prior censuses have been conducted by respective ward administrators, sources said, but this time, only a handful of staff from the census bureau have been interviewing residents, along with junta soldiers in plain clothing.
San Oo, of Mandalay’s Pyi Gyi Tagon township said that while his area was on the list for this year’s pilot census, he hasn’t seen anyone conducting it there.
“In 2022, they already carried out a headcount, but now they are saying they will do it again,” he said. “[Last year] the heads of wards timidly went from house to house to take the lists [because they knew no one wanted to take part] … This year, there has been no household survey yet [because of the strong opposition].”
PDF attack on pollers
While the public is rejecting the newest census effort, the PDF has said it will take action to prevent it.
On Oct. 6, PDF forces attacked a group that traveled to Monywa city’s Tha Pyay Taw village to conduct a survey as part of the pilot project. The attack left one police officer dead and another one wounded, residents told RFA.
Attempts by RFA to contact Myint Kyaing, the junta’s minister of immigration and population, for comment on the pilot census and the public reaction went unanswered Tuesday.
But Thein Tun Oo, the executive director of the Thayninga Institute for Strategic Studies, which is made up of former military officers, told RFA that it is a “normal process” for the junta to conduct the pilot census, as accurate population data is needed to hold elections.
“There is a normal process that the census will be taken once a year and [authorities will] ensure it is accurate if an election is to be held,” he said. “People are only criticizing it because the process and the election are nearly overlapping.”
Thein Tun Oo dismissed the attack on the pilot census group in Monywa and the PDF’s vow to disrupt any would-be headcount as the actions of “those who do not want stability for the country.”
‘We will block it’
It’s not clear when the junta plans to hold elections, if at all.
The military regime originally planned a poll for this year, but last month, junta chief Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing told his cabinet that it wouldn’t take place until after a national census in October 2024, which implies that an actual vote wouldn’t happen until 2025 at the earliest.
Bo Galone, a PDF official in Sagaing region’s Yinmarbin township, said there will be no census if his group has anything to say about it.
“We will block it using all possible means,” he said. “They recently conducted the population survey for the first time in [Sagaing’s] Pale township. We launched an attack while they were carrying it out. Since then, they have not taken any more surveys.”
Myanmar’s military carried out its first coup in 1962 and an election was finally held in 1990 – the results of which the then-junta dismissed. The results of the country’s 2015 election, in which Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy won a supermajority of seats in parliament, were the first to be generally accepted.
Min Aung Hlaing has said that he will hand over control of the country to whichever party wins in the polls.
Translated by Htin Aung Kyaw. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Malcolm Foster.