Fierce fighting between Myanmar’s military and ethnic armies in northern Shan state in recent weeks has expanded to include parts of the northwest, southeast and Rakhine state, displacing more than 200,000 people, according to the United Nations.
Three weeks since the "Three Brotherhood" Alliance of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army launched an offensive on Oct. 27 dubbed " Operation 1027" the rebels have made notable gains against the military in several key cities in Shan state in the country's northeast.
In the wake of the operation, the Arakan Army, or AA, this week attacked the junta's military in the western state of Rakhine, ending a ceasefire brokered one year ago on humanitarian grounds. Conflict is also underway in Kayah state's Loikaw township, including aerial bombardment in urban areas causing civilian casualties
But the fighting has taken a huge humanitarian toll. In a flash update published late on Tuesday, the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, or UNOCHA, said that more than 200,000 people had been displaced by fighting in the regions as of Nov. 14 – many of whom have moved towards the border with China to the north.
The exodus included people who fled active war zones, as well as others who left their homes amid the threat of clashes, village raids by junta troops, and military artillery and air strikes, it said.
“A halt in clashes and provision of unimpeded humanitarian access by all parties are critical to safeguarding the lives and well-being of civilians and aid workers who are delivering life-saving services to people in need,” the UNOCHA said.
The agency noted that key transportation routes in townships with active fighting have been blocked both by junta forces and ethnic armies, “further restricting people’s movements to safer locations as well as humanitarian access.”
But UNOCHA said that, despite insecurity, access and telecommunications challenges in the regions, humanitarian assistance is continuing in northern Shan, while humanitarian partners in the northwest, southeast and Rakhine state are”assessing new needs to respond accordingly.
“Needs in the Northwest, Southeast and Rakhine are increasing by the day and require immediate response,” it said.
More than 1.6 million civilians have fled their homes due to fighting since the military’s Feb. 1, 202,1 coup d’etat, according to figures released by the UNOCHA at the end of last month.
Artillery and air strikes
The latest numbers suggest that the fears of those fleeing fighting in Myanmar are not unfounded.
Sources in affected regions recently told RFA Burmese that more than 70 civilians were killed and at least 252 injured by junta artillery and air strikes in Myanmar over the last two months alone.
The U.S.-based Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, or ACLED, said it had documented at least 2,302 military artillery strikes and 1,275 air strikes in Myanmar between Feb. 1, 2021, and Nov. 10 this year, resulting in 1,037 and 1,261 fatalities, respectively.
The number of military artillery and air strikes in Myanmar has steadily increased from 222 and 159 in the first quarter of this year to 347 and 256 in the third quarter, coinciding with reports of anti-junta forces winning an increasing number of battles on the ground.
Attempts by RFA to contact junta Deputy Information Minister Major Gen. Zaw Min Tun for comment on reports of civilian casualties resulting from military artillery and air strikes went unanswered Wednesday, but the junta has previously said that its forces do not target non-combatants.
Poor morale and defections
The military's shift in strategy to lean more heavily on artillery and air strikes also comes amid reports of poor morale in Myanmar's armed forces that sources say are a result of gains by the armed resistance and a realization that the military might not emerge the victor in its multi-front conflict.
Sources say flagging morale has contributed to a number of military defections in recent months.
On Tuesday, 32 junta soldiers stationed at Loikaw University in Kayah state – including Captain Kaung Myat, the commander of Light Infantry Battalion 6 – surrendered to local resistance forces together with their arms and ammunition after suffering a “high number of casualties” in a clash with ethnic Karenni armed groups, the anti-junta Karen Nationalities Defense Force said in a statement.
Days earlier, the entire Light Infantry Battalion 129, including its commander and 134 family members, surrendered to the Three Brotherhood Alliance's Myanmar National Democratic Alliance, or MNDAA, in northern Shan state. And on Oct. 30, all 41 members of Light Infantry Battalion 143, including a deputy commander and two company commanders, surrendered to the MNDAA in Shan's Kunlong township.
Attempts by RFA to contact junta Social Affairs Minister Myint Kyi, who is also the spokesperson for the Kayah state government, for comment on the latest surrender went unanswered Wednesday.
But the junta has signaled of late that it is concerned by gains by the resistance and their impact on support for his regime.
Last week, junta chief Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing said that the alliance's "Operation 1027" could "break the country into pieces" if left unchecked.
To boost the morale of troops and demonstrate public support for the military, the junta has organized several rallies in major cities in recent days, including Yangon, Mandalay, Naypyitaw, and Myitkyina.
But residents of the cities told RFA on condition of anonymity that the rallies are part of a bid by the junta to “hide its deteriorating political and military situation.”
Translated by Aung Naing. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Malcolm Foster.