Myanmar junta extends census as fighting, floods slow election preparations

Preliminary results will be published in December, according to state-controlled media.

UPDATED on Oct. 15, 2024 at 2:39pm ET

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Myanmar’s military regime has been forced to extend its two-week census, an official told Radio Free Asia on Wednesday, after fighting and threats of retaliation against junta administrators, along with flooding in the wake of Typhoon Yagi, made it impossible to gather information in many parts of the country.

The census, aimed at tallying potential voters ahead of the widely-criticized 2025 elections, has met strong opposition from the country's ethnic armed groups who say preparations for a nationwide vote are impossible while they battle a regime that continues to arrest and kill its critics.

Since the country’s coup over three years ago, the junta has been under pressure from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to hold elections. But the regime has continued to extend a state of emergency across the country and brought in tough new registration laws that disqualify many parties from standing, including the National League for Democracy, deposed after winning a landslide victory in the 2020 election.

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After the official census period ended on Tuesday, the junta’s ministry of immigration and population said more time was needed to reach households in areas of armed conflict and regions whose roads had been cut off by recent storms and flooding.

"Although we conducted the census from Oct. 1 to Oct. 15, there are still regions that are left out,” Vice Minister of Immigration and Population Htay Hlaing told RFA. “We’ll continue there, but I can’t say how long it will last.”

The junta plans to add 40,000 more enumerators to the nearly 110,000 already working to collect census data, his ministry said, adding that there are an estimated 13 million households in the country, with a population of over 56 million. Htay Hlaing declined to comment on how many people had filled out the census over the past two weeks.

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Census takers take down information in Yangon. Oct. 9, 2024. (RFA)

On Wednesday, state-owned media encouraged those in “relevant areas” who remained uncounted to contact the Central Census Commission, adding that census-taking would continue until Oct. 31 and the commission plans to publish preliminary results in December.

Counts in opposition territory

Powerful ethnic armies continue to seize territory from junta forces in Rakhine state in Myanmar’s west, border regions like Kachin, Kayin and Kayah states, and central Mandalay region, casting doubt on how junta forces could do an accurate count there. Observers say that armed clashes are occurring daily in more than 230 of Myanmar's 330 townships, further complicating the situation.

Census takers and the troops and police guarding them have come under attack from rebel forces in Chin state and Sagaing, Yangon and Tanintharyi regions since early October.

Nay Myo, a resident of Sagaing's Taze township told RFA that data has been collected in only around 10 of the area's more than 270 villages.

"Anti-junta families have fled to areas controlled by the [opposition] due to fears of arrest and torture, while junta supporters remain in their villages," he said. "Consequently, an accurate population count cannot be obtained in those locations."

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A junta soldier on guard during the census in Yangon, Oct. 9, 2024. (RFA)

In Yangon region, authorities are using loudspeakers to encourage people who were absent during the census period to report their households to respective administrative offices, according to a resident, who spoke to RFA on condition of anonymity due to security concerns.

“The junta was unable to fully collect census data even in the heavily militarized townships of Yangon region," the resident said. "Some families chose to avoid the census by closing the doors of their apartments, only to return in the following days. Households were asked to visit local administrative offices to provide their census data, but many neglected this invitation."

He said people had expressed concerns about the census questions, including those related to family members living abroad, spoken languages, migration history, and occupations.

Endangering security and lives

Junta leader Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing on Tuesday called on Myanmar's ethnic armed groups to cooperate with the election plans, warning: "Only when the country forges peace and stability will the government initiate the strengthening of the multiparty democratic system and correct reform processes as quickly as possible."

But former election monitor San Aung, who has been observing the latest preparations, told RFA the junta will not be able to complete the census in areas controlled by armies opposed to Min Aung Hlaing’s regime.

"There are so many forces defending areas that they won't allow a census to be done in. Even in Yangon, it's not easy to count," he said, referring to Myanmar's largest city, where guerrilla groups bombed administrative offices days before the census began.

“There are also very few enumerators. Getting the data in phases will probably also be difficult. They’re definitely endangering their security and their lives.”

According to observers, Myanmar's 2014 census took 12 days to complete, from March 30 to April 10, and covered 98% of the country, with the exception of some areas in Rakhine, Kayin, and Kachin states.

Translated by Kiana Duncan. Edited by Mike Firn and Joshua Lipes.

This story has been updated to include comments from residents of Sagaing and Yangon regions, the expected end date for the extended census, and information about Myanmar's 2014 census.