Myanmar's military junta, which seized power in a 2021 coup d'etat from a civilian government, has declared it intends to hold a general election in November 2025.
But armed rebel groups and members of the shadow National Unity Government, or NUG – made up of former civilian leaders – are opposed to the vote, which they say would be a sham, allowing the military to legitimize its control over the country.
Ever since the coup, the country has been wracked by a civil war, with ethnic armies and rebel groups gaining the upper hand over the past year, pushing the military back on its heels.
On Tuesday, the NUG said it would try to speed up its offensive against the military to gain even more territory – where they would boycott elections – and double international outreach efforts.
Why does the junta want to hold elections?
Facing a series of battlefield defeats and troop surrenders, military leaders are searching for an exit strategy to a civil war that will drag on and that increasingly appears they will not win. Holding elections may be a bid by the junta to create a sense of normalcy and political stability in the country – in part to placate its northern neighbor China, one of its few international backers.
The military leaders probably are hoping to legitimize their control of Myanmar’s government by manipulating the electoral process to ensure that their preferred candidates win, experts say. Doing so would allow them to retain power under the guise of a democratic system.
The junta is also hoping that plans to hold an election will ease international pressure and sanctions, and even give the regime international recognition by showing a commitment to the democratic process – regardless of whether the polls are manipulated.
Meanwhile, on the ground, the junta's recent enactment of a military draft to shore up troop shortages and formation of a committee to arm communities at the village level appear to be aimed in part at providing security for the would-be polls.
Why are Myanmar’s armed opposition groups so opposed to such an election?
Junta opponents say a history of election fraud under military rule – and the junta’s crackdown on any form of dissent – means it is highly unlikely any such election will be free and fair. It would be illegitimate and aimed at securing power for the junta, rather than ushering in a democratic transition, they say.
These doubts are bolstered by the junta’s exclusionary electoral process that would deny many groups a stake in the country’s future.
Instead, the rebel groups say they will ratchet up their attacks on junta positions to increase their territory and block elections in areas under their control.
Furthermore, the armed opposition says the junta is using the election as a distraction from the ongoing civil war and its human rights abuses. Many groups say they will focus on resisting the junta militarily while advocating for democratic reforms without a ballot.
"The military council has planned to hold a fake election as their last resort next year,” NUG Prime Minister Mahn Win Khaing Than said Tuesday. “Some countries will support the elections, encouraging the junta to continue the plan by all possible means. With thorough consideration, we need to speed up our offensives and political measures.”
Is the junta even able to stage elections?
Junta chief Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing has made promises to hold the ballot ever since the coup in early 2021, with little progress made.
Junta forces have lost significant territory this year to various rebel groups, and its Union Election Commission said this week that a vote would need to be conducted “first in places where the situation is fine and stable,” followed by “areas that are moderately stable.”
The junta extended a state of emergency for another six months on July 31, the sixth extension since the 2021 coup. The constitution mandates that elections must be held within six months after a state of emergency is lifted. The junta is also planning to organize a census this October to prepare for the polls, but observers say that may be difficult.
Translated by Aung Naing. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Malcolm Foster.