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Myanmar's junta is trying to conduct a nationwide census to prepare for elections it says it intends to hold in November 2025, but because various rebel groups control big chunks of the country amid a three-year civil war, opponents say only half of the country's 55 million citizens will be counted.
That’s further indication that the promised elections won’t be fair, say former civilian leaders of the National League for Democracy, or NLD, whose administration the military deposed in a 2021 coup.
Armed rebel groups and members of a “shadow government” formed by former NLD leaders called the National Unity Government, or NUG, are staunchly opposed to any election organized by the junta because they say it would be a sham, allowing the military to legitimize its control over the country.
The census, which the junta says it will complete by mid-October, will include only about 30 million people because only residents of major cities, which the junta still controls, are being counted, a former director of the NLD told Radio Free Asia on condition of anonymity for security reasons.
Furthermore, there are no international observers in the country to verify the accuracy of the census, said Aung Thu Nyein, a researcher with the Institute for Strategy and Policy – Myanmar..
“It is difficult to verify the accuracy of the population under the ongoing situation in Myanmar,” he said. “They [the junta] are starting the census this year. Who will recognize it? It would need to be recognized by the United Nations as well as the international community."
‘No census will be accurate’
In war-torn Rakhine state, the junta only controls the capital Sittwe and the townships of Ann, Taungup and Marn Aung, while remaining areas are under the control of the Arakan Army, or AA, which will never facilitate a census, a resident of Rakhine’s Kyaukphyu township told RFA.
“If the AA accepted the junta’s plan for an election, the junta could carry out a census,” said the resident, speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons. “Otherwise, the junta can only take a census in its controlled areas.”
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Bo Bo Oo, the vice president of the National League for Democracy in Yangon region’s Sanchaung township, noted that amid Myanmar’s economic turmoil, many people have migrated to other countries for work, making it impossible to get accurate population data.
"As long as the country is at war, no census will be accurate," he said.
Additionally, the junta's recent enactment of a military draft to shore up troop shortages has prompted thousands of draft-eligible men and women to join armed opposition groups or flee the country, further complicating efforts to get a precise count.
Although the census has been set to end between Oct. 1 and 15, the junta has said that if it is not complete, they will “increase security and extend the date” to finalize it.
At present, armed conflict is underway in 233 of Myanmar’s 330 townships, the Institute for Strategy and Policy – Myanmar said in a July 15 report.
The United Nations says about 3 million people have been forced from their homes by fighting between junta troops and those who oppose the military’s coup, many since clashes surged at the beginning of the year.
Translated by Aung Naing. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Malcolm Foster.