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Myanmar’s junta is shifting troops from southern to northern Shan state in a bid to recapture several towns it lost to in an offensive launched by an alliance of ethnic armies last year, according to residents and rebel officials.
The Three Brotherhood Alliance launched an offensive last October, codenamed Operation 1027, that pushed back the military from several regions in Shan state it controlled following its February 2021 coup d’etat, including along northeastern Myanmar’s border with China.
China helped to negotiate an end to hostilities between the junta and the alliance – made up of The Ta'ang National Liberation Army, Arakan Army and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army – but the alliance resumed attacks in Shan state in late June following the lifting of the ceasefire.
On Wednesday, residents and a spokesperson for the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, or TNLA, told RFA Burmese that the junta had dispatched troops from its Eastern Central Command based in southern Shan state’s Hko Lan township to the townships of Mongyai, Tangyan and Nam Lan in northern Shan state.
"I saw more than 10 covered military trucks as well as many soldiers in the cars,” said a resident of Kyay Thee township who, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on condition of anonymity due to security concerns. “I saw the vehicles near a village between Kyay Thee and Mong Yai townships.”
A resident of Panglong township told RFA that junta forces were using civilian cars to travel to Kyay Thee and Mong Yai, via the Panlong-Le Char road.
"We saw around 15 covered military vehicles beyond Le Char about two days ago,” said the resident. “A second military convoy included 12-foot long civilian light trucks in Panglong township, heading to Le Char and Kyay Thee. There were more than 10 vehicles in that group.”
Residents said the second convoy was likely to be transporting “about 1,000 soldiers.”
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TNLA spokeswoman Lway Yay Oo confirmed the troop movement, but said her group was unclear which towns the junta is targeting.
"We know that many junta troops are heading to our areas, but we have no idea about their intentions,” she said.
Other sources told RFA that the junta is gathering soldiers who retreated from the alliance offensive in northern Shan state in the townships of Mongyai, Tangyan and Hko Lan.
They said that reinforcements are being sent from the No. 55 Light Infantry Division, as well as Nos. 18, 17 and 7 Military Operations Commands.
Vow to retake lost towns
Earlier this month, junta chief Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing said during a trip to southern Shan state’s Taunggyi city that the junta would launch air and ground offensives to recapture lost towns in northern Shan state.
The comments followed the junta’s Sept. 2 designation of the members of the Three Northern Brotherhood Alliance as “terrorist groups.”
Since Min Aung Hlaing’s vow to retake townships in northern Shan state, airstrikes have intensified, leading to a threefold increase in civilian casualties compared to August, according to data compiled by RFA.
Between Sept. 1 and 24, junta airstrikes killed more than 130 people and injured more than 70 others across eight states and regions, including Mandalay, Magway, Bago, Sagaing, Tanintharyi, Shan, Rakhine, and Kayah, the data showed.
Maung Maung Swe, the deputy secretary of the shadow National Unity Government, or NUG, told RFA that the uptick in airstrikes was part of a bid by the junta to show China it means business along its neighbor’s border.
"They resorted to bombing as a means to rekindle the support of their allies, which had waned due to territorial losses,” he said. “Simultaneously, this tactic serves to instill fear within our population.”
A former military officer and political commentator, who also declined to be named, said that the junta likely decided to move on northern Shan state amid Chinese pressure on the alliance members to stop fighting.
Attempts by RFA to contact junta spokesperson Major General Zaw Min Tun regarding military movements in northern Shan state went unanswered Wednesday.
The Three Brotherhood Alliance captured a total of 16 townships in northern Shan state between October 2023 and January 2024 as part of the first round of Operation 1027, before China mediated a suspension in fighting.
However, in late June the alliance launched a second round of the offensive, capturing Lashio city, where the junta’s Northeast Military Command headquarters was located, Kyaukme township which was also the base of the junta’s No. 1 Military Operations Command, and Nawnghkio township, as well as Mogoke township in neighboring Mandalay region.
The junta has been conducting daily airstrikes and artillery strikes on Hsipaw and Nawnghkio townships, as well as Lashio city, according to residents.
According to RFA data, junta airstrikes and heavy weapons attacks killed nearly 2,000 civilians and injured nearly 4,000 others between the military’s February 2021 coup d’etat and May 2024.
Translated by Aung Naing. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Malcolm Foster.