UPDATED at 10:15 A.M. ET on 02-05-2024
An offensive by ethnic armed groups in Myanmar’s northern Shan state will “break the country into pieces” if left unchecked, said junta Acting President Myint Swe, in a rare admission of the operation’s success against the military since its launch late last month.
On Oct. 27, the Northern or “Three Brotherhood” Alliance of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army launched “Operation 1027” – named for the date of the offensive.
The groups simultaneously struck junta positions in the strategic Shan cities of Kunlong, Hseni, Chin Shwe Haw, Laukkaing, Namhkan, Kutkai, and Lashio, the state’s largest municipality.
Since then, reports indicate that the alliance has taken some 150 military camps in battles throughout Shan state and sparked discussions of how its success against junta troops can be replicated in other parts of the country.
Speaking at an emergency meeting of the National Defense and Security Council in the capital Naypyitaw on Wednesday, Myint Swe stressed the urgency of putting an end to the northern offensive.
“The three ethnic alliance attacks in northern Shan state near the China-Myanmar border will break the country into pieces,” he said.
The offensive comes as a joint force of the ethnic Kachin Independence Army and Arakan Army, or AA, have launched attacks on military posts in Kachin state and Sagaing region, the junta leader noted.
Observers were quick to point out that Myint Swe’s comments suggest the military has increasingly few supporters.
“He is urging the people to back the Tatmadaw,” said Ta’ang region-based political commentator Sodre, using the official name of Myanmar’s military. “But the momentum of the revolution is increasing and [anti-junta] forces have occupied several towns and outposts. This request … shows that people do not support Tatmadaw at all.”
Human rights lawyer Kyee Myint called Myint Swe’s comments “an attempt to divide the people from the country’s ethnic armed groups.”
“The country’s ethnic armed organizations, [anti-junta] People’s Defence Forces [paramilitaries] and pro-democracy groups are unified,” he said. “They are the ones who are being divided.”
MNDAA dismisses junta claims
During Wednesday’s meeting, junta chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing claimed that the ongoing conflicts in northern Shan state were part of a bid by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA, to restore its power base in Laukkaing and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, or TNLA, to establish an independent state. He said that the Three Brotherhood Alliance operation had been funded with revenue from the illicit trade of narcotics and online scam rings.
He also claimed that the MNDAA and TNLA attacks on Chin Shwe Haw – a major trade zone along Myanmar’s border with China – had damaged bilateral relations between Naypyitaw and Beijing.
However, MNDAA spokesman Li Kyarwen rejected Min Aung Hlaing’s comments, saying that his group is firmly focused on eliminating the military regime.
“This country won’t be divided – that’s impossible because the objective of our operation is to end the military dictatorship and build a genuine federal union,” he said.
Li Kyarwen also dismissed claims that the Three Brotherhood Alliance was funding its operation through criminal activities, which he instead attributed to gangs operating under the protection of the junta.
“It is clear which groups are earning income from illegal businesses,” he said. “When we launched the operation, the heads of all of these groups in Laukkaing were quickly rescued by helicopters.”
Fierce fighting since the start of the offensive has meanwhile forced thousands of residents –including hundreds of children – to flee their homes for temporary shelter in makeshift camps and even across the border in China’s Yunnan province.
In a statement last week, the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said that the number of people displaced by the conflict in northern Shan state had reached “more than 23,000.”
Translated by Aung Naing. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Paul Eckert.
Correction - An earlier version of this story incorrectly attributed Myint Swe's comments to Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, the junta's chairman.