WASHINGTON _ Russian President Vladimir Putin has underlined his goal to increase engagement with Southeast Asia by recently dispatching a top aide to boost ties with the region towards a common goal for a more multilateral world order, analysts told BenarNews.
Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu’s talks with Indonesia and Malaysia last week were also in line with the desire of all three countries to diversify markets and power centers beyond the Washington and Beijing binary, said Emil Avdaliani, an international relations expert at the European University in Tbilisi, Georgia.
“Russia regards Southeast Asia as one of the pillars in the emerging multipolar world order. This means Moscow strives to foster political and economic ties with this vibrant geopolitical space,” Avdaliani told BenarNews.
Western sanctions on Russia after it invaded Ukraine “served as a major driver to look eastward,” he said.
“Russia understands that Southeast Asia has been in a difficult position after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and Moscow has been careful not to impose its vision on the region,” Avdaliani added.
“Russia [also] understands that Southeast Asia pursues its own interests, which implies [they follow a] multi-vector foreign policy, balancing among big actors and not choosing any sides.”
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Southeast Asia is by no means homogenous, which means that countries such as staunch U.S. ally the Philippines, and Singapore, which sanctioned Moscow, may balk at an expanded Russian footprint.
Russia’s renewed Southeast Asia engagement may also be uncomfortable for Manila because of Moscow’s relatively new partnership with Beijing, which many call “an alliance of convenience.”
For the Philippines, China is a thorn in the side because of its increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea, where both countries have contending territorial claims.
However, in a fractured – and fractious – geopolitical world order, nations firmly allied with Washington or Beijing may be realizing that they need to be self-reliant in safeguarding their interests.
For instance, Manila’s envoy to Washington, Jose Manuel Romualdez, told reporters earlier this week that countries need “to be always ready … to put up their own resources” to do what is best for themselves.
Southeast Asia’s nations overall, though, have for long been seen as following expedient foreign policies, which is a draw for Russia, according to analyst Muhammad Waffaa Kharisma.
“Southeast Asian countries are less constrained by transatlantic or European political decisions,” the researcher at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta told BenarNews.
“Most developing countries here can be quite pragmatic.”
Trade data reflects that pragmatism.
After a brief blip following Western sanctions imposed on Moscow after February 2022, Southeast Asia’s trade with Russia has been on the upswing.
Russia-ASEAN trade increased 10% to U.S. $17 billion in the January-September 2024 period, Moscow-owned news agency Sputnik cited a Russian minister as saying in November.
Trade between the two sides for the whole of 2023 totaled $15.8 billion, according to ASEAN data.
ASEAN member-states Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam, all of which profess non-alignment, increased trade with Russia especially in 2024.
The Indonesian government struck a defiant note when asked about a deepening of ties with Russia.
As long as the association was mutually beneficial and “respectful,” there was no reason not to expand relations, a Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman, Rolliansyah Soemirat, said.
“Why not cooperate with Russia?” he told BenarNews.
“Indonesia is not intimidated by any country as long as our national interests are upheld.”
Alexey Gruzdev, Russia’s minister of industry and trade, said the increase occurred because Russian businesses had “successfully adapted” to Western sanctions, Sputnik reported in November.
Analysts said there was more to it than businesses adapting.
Russia has capitalized on growing anti-West sentiment, particularly over the conflict in Gaza, to bolster its image in Southeast Asia, said Radityo Dharmaputra, a Europe and Eurasia expert at Indonesia’s Airlangga University.
Russia’s support for the Palestinian people is in line with Muslim-majority nations Indonesia and Malaysia, which have condemned what they say has been U.S. ally Israel’s disproportionate response to the Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas militants.
“This narrative has been a core part of Russia’s strategy,” Radityo said.
“By promoting an anti-West … message, Russia has effectively won support, particularly in Malaysia and Indonesia.”
‘Diversifying supply chains’
Additionally, some Southeast Asian nations proactively want to access alternate markets, which has also led to an uptick in trade with Russia, said Julia Roknifard, an international relations expert in Kuala Lumpur.
“It is about diversifying the supply chains away from the sole focus on the largest trade partners,” Roknifard, senior lecturer at the School of Law and Governance at Taylor’s University, told BenarNews.
“Russia, on the other hand, is interested in the products from Malaysia’s semiconductor industry.”
Following warnings by new U.S. President Donald Trump to tax imports, with a focus on countries America has a trade deficit with – especially Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia – a new market would help ease a potential trade slowdown in Southeast Asia.
The BRICS factor
Another Russian strategy to court Southeast Asia has been to market BRICS, a bloc of emerging economies it co-founded in 2006, as a pathway to creating a multipolar world.
BRICS is named after its founders Brazil, Russia, India and China, as well as South Africa, which joined in 2010.
Increasing cooperation within the BRICS platform was a priority of Moscow’s foreign policy, TASS quoted Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov as saying in April 2023.
During Russia’s chairmanship last year, BRICS announced that ASEAN members Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam would become its partner nations.
Indonesia then formally joined the grouping as a member in January, and expressed “gratitude to Russia” for facilitating its membership.
A former Malaysian foreign minister, Syed Hamid Albar, said more ASEAN cooperation with BRICS was needed to “hedge” Southeast Asian nations’ relationship with major powers in an ever-shifting world order.
“Anyway, Russia is providing space for small and big nations to move forward from hegemony and operate under a new world order and multilateralism,” he told BenarNews.
US policy shift on Ukraine
Meanwhile, Washington reversing its adversarial stance towards Moscow over Ukraine would have implications across the world, including in Southeast Asia, analysts said.
Chester Cabalza, a security expert, spoke about the possible ramifications of this change in relation to the Philippines. Manila and Washington are bound by a longstanding mutual defense treaty.
“U.S. defense officials are still adamant on saving their defense ties with the Philippines,” Cabalza, who heads a Manila think-tank, International Development and Security Cooperation, told BenarNews.
Still, Washington’s shift has “gently reminded Manila to practice self-reliance,” he added.
Washington’s Ukraine pivot may also aid the expansion of Southeast Asia’s ties with Russia, indicated Radityo Dharmaputra, a Europe-Eurasia expert from Airlangga University
“There now appears to be a sense of relief in Southeast Asia regarding U.S.-Russia relations,” Radityo, head of the university’s Centre for European and Eurasian Studies, said to BenarNews.
“These nations seem to feel reassured that ties between Washington and Moscow have improved, allowing them to resume trade and diplomatic engagement.”
Iman Muttaqin Yusof in Kuala Lumpur, Tria Dianti in Jakarta, and Jason Gutierrez in Manila contributed to this report. BenarNews is an online news outlet affiliated with Radio Free Asia.