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Communist Party of Vietnam General Secretary To Lam has been streamlining government since becoming the top leader on Aug. 3, 2024.
He combined and abolished some ministries and agencies before turning his attention to local government. The impact of eliminating districts and merging provinces may seem only to affect local politics and infrastructure but it goes right to the top of the party and the state, analysts told Radio Free Asia.
Where does the power lie?
Ever since Ho Chi Minh picked Le Duan as his successor, making him first secretary in 1960 and then general secretary, the communist party’s central committee has had little real power. Major decisions were made by the politburo, closely controlled by Le Duan, who filled it with his supporters. He gave his appointees responsibility for specific areas of government, while the central committee served as a rubber stamp for politburo decisions.
The power of the politburo continued after Le Duan’s death in 1986, but shifted at the 12th National Party Congress in 2016 when then-general secretary Nguyen Phu Trong gave more power to the central committee.
What does streamlining state apparatus mean for decision-making?
Vietnam holds a National Party Congress every five years, the next in 2026. Delegates to the meeting look at how effectively existing policies are being implemented, decide on any new political direction and policies and elect the members of the new term’s central committee. The central committee elects the party general secretary and members of the politburo.
The institutional reforms carried out by General Secretary To Lam in recent months could lead to changes in the selection of representatives for the 14th National Party Congress from localities and government agencies.
Currently, delegates attending congresses from various localities are elected at the local level. If district-level authorities are abolished and provinces are merged, it is likely to have an impact since new provinces – and fewer of them – will be picking delegates to attend the congress.
Will Lam’s position be strengthened or weakened?
Lam is not guaranteed re-election as general secretary at the party congress, according to political journalist Van Tran. Rapid and intensive restructuring of Vietnam’s state apparatus has always been difficult to implement, he told RFA. Lam is making changes as a matter of political survival that will also determine the political fate of his subordinates and supporters, he said.
Carl Thayer, emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales, Canberra, said if Lam wants to be re-elected general secretary, he will need support from various factions and interest groups. These include not only central committee members but also delegates to the next congress, and most importantly, support from the new central committee. Lam must build alliances to secure this support, Thayer said.
What is the significance of Vietnam’s anti-corruption campaign?
Lam’s predecessor Nguyen Phu Trong spearheaded a campaign to stamp out corruption in the party and government known as the “blazing furnace.” As then-head of the public security ministry, Lam was responsible for executing the campaign.
Critics of Trong said he used the campaign – introduced in 2013 – to consolidate power. He targeted political opponents close to Nguyen Tan Dung, who served as prime minister from 2006 to 2016.
As public security minister, Lam also used the “blazing furnace” to target opponents, leaving allies likely to support his bid to become general secretary, according to Nguyen Van Chu, former head of the economics faculty at Houston University.
Vietnamese kindergarten teachers issue “good child cards” noting students' mistakes and achievements. Nguyen Van Chu said Lam – as public security minister – issued metaphorical “good child cards” to every politburo member, determining who would stay or go.
How will regional reform impact national government?
According to an independent Australia-based political analyst, the most critical issue in Vietnamese politics is the composition of delegates attending the 2026 congress. Previously about 1,500 delegates attended so there would be a big impact if the number was cut as a result of regional government reforms, said the analyst, who didn’t want to be identified due to the sensitivity of the issue.
Vietnam has previously only added delegates. Lam is targeting his cuts to clear away critics and ensure only supporters attend the meeting, the analyst said. This creates the risk of political power being concentrated in the hands of one person, he added.
“At present, this is definitely the most discussed and debated issue within the party,” the analyst said.
“The outcome of these discussions will reveal which path To Lam’s reforms will follow: streamlining the apparatus and enhancing democracy, or streamlining the apparatus and concentrating power.”
How will the Central Committee change?
With the impending announcement of plans to merge provinces and eliminate district-level agencies, numerous questions have come up regarding Vietnam’s political superstructure.
Two key questions are: Will the Central Committee maintain its current composition of 180 official members and 20 alternate members as established at the 13th Party Congress? If so, how will the allocation of these positions among various agencies and localities be determined?
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Lam’s low-level reforms will have a tangible impact on Hanoi’s political superstructure, according to Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington.
Since Vietnam’s Doi Moi reforms began in 1986, to create a socialist market-oriented economy, approximately one-third of central committee members have been provincial leaders. Consequently, the consolidation of provinces and cities could reduce provincial representation in the Central Committee or lead to a shrinkage of the Central Committee, he said.
Although there are 180 official and 20 alternate members of the central committee, Article 12 of the party constitution does not specify a fixed number but stipulates that “the number of Central Committee members shall be determined by the National Party Congress.”
Similarly, for lower levels, “the number of members of any level shall be decided by the congress of that level, according to the guidance of the Central Executive Committee.”
This gives the general secretary the flexibility to select personnel for the Central Committee, according to Abuza.
“My back of the envelope calculation is that there are only 400 or so positions in the country, the Communist Party of Vietnam, army, and state owned enterprises that make one eligible for membership on the Central Committee,” he said. “My guess is that To Lam might want greater representation from the business sector.”
The year before a party congress there are usually no changes to government, said Abuza, but Lam is pushing through major structural reforms.
“That speaks to his confidence,” he said. “I think if you look at the way he has stacked the central committee, removed adversaries, and stacked the politburo with allies, it seems likely that he is going to run the tables at the 14th Congress, similar to what Xi Jinping did at the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party.”
Translated by Anna Vu. Edited by Mike Firn.