MANILA, Philippines – The Philippines is slowly shifting to a more “active defense posture,” analysts told Radio Free Asia, as Manila and Washington launch the largest-ever iteration of their annual war games this week.
The increased scope of the “Balikatan” exercises reflect the Philippines taking on a more decisive role in its own defense, while still remaining strongly committed to its bilateral alliance with the United States, the analysts said.
Though officials leading in “Balikatan” exercises do not mention China by name, the war games are occurring amid increased Chinese tensions in the sea. Japan, which, like the Philippines, also faces territorial challenges from China in the East China Sea, is playing a more direct and active role in this year’s drills, reflecting its growing defense ties with Manila.
All told, there are 17,000 personnel participating, including 10,000 from the U.S. and 7,000 from the Philippines and partner nations Japan, France, Canada and Australia.
Active defense posture
The Philippines’ gradual shift to an “active defense posture” reflects the growing defense dynamics in the region, as China sees more opposition from weaker neighbors seeking strength by banding together, the analysts said.
“For years, Manila operated within a relatively constrained framework, relying heavily on its alliance with the United States,” Arnaud Leveau, president of the Paris-based Asia Centre think tank and an assistant professor at Paris Dauphine University, told RFA. “What we are seeing now is a gradual effort to assert greater agency while remaining firmly anchored in that alliance.”
Manila exerting more control over its defense is an indication that it is adapting to the current geopolitical climate, he said.
“I see it as a rather calibrated adjustment to changing circumstances. In this context, signaling resolve should not be seen as escalation, but rather as a form of deterrence,” he said. “Repeated incidents at sea have shown that ambiguity can invite further pressure.”
Chinese provocations at sea have become increasingly common in recent years. Earlier this month, China erected a floating barrier at the disputed Scarborough Shoal to block access to Philippine fishing boats. Around the same time the Philippine Navy spotted ten Chinese coast guard vessels there, attempting to enforce a blockade.
Previous incidents have included Chinese ships blasting Philippine fishing boats with water cannons or even ramming them.
Though Manila may be signaling resolve through this year’s Balikatan, sustaining the effort to be more active in its own defense would remain a challenge, Leveau said, adding that shifting to more “credible capabilities” requires real investments in command structures, improving logistical resilience as well as maritime awareness.
Victor Andres Manhit, president of the Manila-based defense think tank Stratbase Institute, told RFA that the Philippines needed to “fully operationalize its posture of active defense” to thwart China’s ever-increasing territorial threats.
This year’s Balikatan numbers “represent the correct path forward” to address the challenge, Manhit said. This sends a “clear and unambiguous message…that the Philippines and its partners are prepared to defend the rules-based international order against coercion, intimidation, and unlawful claims.”
The Philippines will mark the 10th anniversary in July of a 2016 international arbitration court’s ruling that invalidated China’s sweeping territorial claims in the sea region. That landmark ruling is hailed internationally, even as it China has continued to reject it.
The increased participation in Balikatan from other countries besides the U.S. underscores the importance of Manila having partnerships with its allied neighbors, Manhit said. “It affirms that we are not isolated, and that our national security is anchored in strong alliances with nations that uphold international law and share our commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific.”
Evolving alliance
Philippine Armed Forces chief Gen. Romeo Brawner, during a ceremony where he declared the war games open Monday, said the drills served to amplify the “strength of an alliance” and the shared responsibility of securing the region.
“For more than three decades, Balikatan has stood as a living testament to the partnership between the Philippines and the United States. One that has grown stronger, more responsive, and more relevant with time,” he said.
Brawner said that participating countries “remain guided by a shared commitment to uphold international law, to respect sovereignty, and to contribute to a free and open Indo-Pacific where nations can thrive without coercion.”
“We are building more than capability. We are building systems that think, move and respond as one,” he said. “Let me emphasize this. Balikatan is readiness made real, cooperation put into action, and peace preserved through our strength.”
Observers told RFA that the joint exercises have evolved into a forum within which all participants can flex their combined strength, including Japan, which until taking on a combat role in Balikatan this year, had participated as an observer or in a limited capacity in prior iterations.
Japan, for one, “is aligning its operational posture with the realities of increased friction in the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific area as well,” Leveu said, adding that the annual Balikatan drills have evolved “into a platform for more flexible, mini-lateral forms of cooperation” that complements an American-centric alliance.
Lucio Pitlo, a foreign policy expert at the Philippine Association for Chinese Studies, told RFA Japan’s increasing military engagements in the region reflected its gradual shift from its post-World War II pacifist stance, with Tokyo keeping in step with the U.S. defense initiatives in the region.
“Japan has been growing in security profile in the region in recent years, motivated by changing domestic views and regional and global developments,” Pitlo said. Both Manila and Washington welcome this development, because “it has expanded our network of defense partners and increased allied access in our territory.”
Edited by Eugene Whong.